Ecuador's presidential runoff will test the influence of former President Correa
GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador (AP) — Ecuador’s April runoff election for president will test the lasting influence of former leftist President Rafael Correa when his protege, lawyer Luisa González, goes up against the conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa.
Neither Noboa nor González won an outright majority in Sunday’s first-round election, but they both were way ahead of the other 14 candidates and each within a percentage point of each other, according to results Monday.
The run-off will be a repeat of the 2023 snap election, prompted by the dissolution of the National Assembly, in which Noboa earned a truncated 16-month presidency after the wealthy businessman campaigned on controlling Ecuador’s crime wave of recent years.
González, this year as in 2023, is appealing to voters’ nostalgia for Correa’s 2007-2017 decade in power that predated the drug trafficking crime wave and that was marked by free-spending policies of the still-influential Correa.
Many voters on Sunday framed their choice on whether they wanted to see a return to what is known as Correismo.
Those who support the movement long for the low crime and unemployment rates of that era but gloss over Correa’s authoritarian tendencies, the huge debt he ran up and the corruption-related sentence handed down to him in absentia in 2020.
Even among those who support Noboa, many have said their vote is more a rejection of Correismo than a resounding endorsement of the president’s crimefighting and governance so far.
Many Ecuadorians were angered last year when Noboa authorized power cuts of up to 14 hours that were blamed on severe drought, and have been wary of his mobilization of the military in the fight against drug traffickers.
The tight margin between the two candidates reflects “Noboa’s inability to reach across the aisle, at least to other sectors of society wary about the return of Correismo,” said Grace Jaramillo, an Andean region expert and professor at the University of British Columbia.
But it also reflects “concern about his lackluster management of the energy crisis late in the fall" and what critics see as an abuse of power in fighting drug dealers, she said.
Figures released by Ecuador’s National Electoral Council showed that with 92.1% of the ballot counted, Noboa received 4.22 million votes, or 44.31%, while González received 4.17 million votes, or 43.83%. The 14 other candidates in the race were far behind them.
The candidates will now campaign for the April 13 runoff election, which will give the winner a full four-year term.
Voting is mandatory in Ecuador. Electoral authorities reported that more than 83% of the roughly 13.7 million eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday.
Sunday marked the fourth consecutive time that the candidate representing Correa’s movement did not win a first-round election outright. Noboa, 37, and González, 47, were the clear front-runners ahead of the election.
González held various government jobs during Correa's presidency. Like Noboa, she was a lawmaker from 2021 until May 2023, when then-President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly and shortened his own mandate as a result.
Now, both candidates will have to mine for further support among pro- and anti-Correa voters, as well as among smaller political movements, including that of indigenous leader Leonidas Iza, who appeared on Sunday’s ballot and finished a distant third.
Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Noboa "may need to lean more into anti-Correismo. But that puts him in a bit of a catch-22 since a lot of his initial appeal came from his youth and his ability to appeal to voters tired of the polarization.”
Freeman said the April contest will test whether Correismo can mobilize more voters in runoffs than in first-round elections, which it has previously failed to do.
“They have a loyal base but difficulty appealing to moderates and those who don’t feel strongly attached to either Correismo or anti-Correismo,” he said.
The spike in violence that Ecuador began experiencing four years ago is tied to the trafficking of cocaine produced in neighboring Colombia and Peru and remains voters’ main concern.
Under Noboa, the homicide rate dropped from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 people last year. Still, it remained far higher than the 6.85 per 100,000 people in 2019, and other crimes, such as kidnapping and extortion, have skyrocketed, making people fearful of leaving their homes.
Further, some of Noboa’s heavy-handed tactics over the past 15 months have come under scrutiny inside and outside the country for testing the limits of laws and norms of governing.
He essentially declared a state of war in January 2024 against the drug gangs, leading to a military mobilization that critics say has overstepped boundaries. He also has been criticized for a decision to authorize a police raid on Mexico’s embassy to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a convicted criminal and fugitive who had been living there for months.
The power cuts last year lasted for several weeks and caused businesses collective losses of $7.5 billion, according to trade associations. Noboa’s government blamed the cuts on a severe drought but never presented data to back that claim.
“He was successful in politically marketing himself on social media but incapable of going and talking directly and compellingly to Ecuadorians outside that bubble,” Jaramillo said.
“Mr. Noboa needs to reassure the electorate that he is the democratic candidate in the second round and that he is ready to lead by example by upholding the rule of law," she added.
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