Germany will likely continue its leadership on climate action. But expect a change in tone
As Germany prepares for a change of government, climate experts are hopeful that Sunday's election results mean that the country will continue to be a leader in ambitious efforts to slash planet-warming emissions and will keep growing its renewable energy industries.
Germany's current climate plans are seen as ambitious: It wants to reduce its emissions from burning coal, oil and gas by 65% by 2030 and reach climate neutrality — where it doesn't emit any more pollution than it can take back out of the atmosphere — by 2045. It also wants to phase out coal-fired power generation entirely by 2038 and make over 54% of its electricity from clean sources like wind, solar and nuclear power.
Both election winner Friedrich Merz ’s conservative bloc and the center-left Social Democrats — the only realistic pairing to form the new government coalition — have previously committed to those climate goals.
"We expect Germany to stay the course,” said Linda Kalcher of Berlin-based think tank Strategic Perspectives. But, she said, expect a “change of tone.”
“A lot of the policies the new government will put forward might not come in the name of climate, but it will be for prosperity, innovation and competitiveness,” even if the end goal is the same, she said.
Even though topics like the economy and migration dominated the headlines during the election campaign, climate change is a key priority for many Germans, several analysts told The Associated Press.
“It’s in the top four (issues) consistently of all voters across parties,” Kalcher said.
In Sunday’s elections, the Greens, who champion tackling climate change, secured 11.6% of the vote – though they’re expected to go into opposition after three years in government. The climate-progressive Left Party secured 8.8% of the vote. But Kalcher said inflation and war diverted voters’ attention to the economy and geopolitics this year. Climate policy got little attention in the campaign.
With Trump now moving the United States away from prioritizing climate and promising to support the fossil fuel industry, “there is a necessity and an opportunity” for Germany — and Europe — to continue its role as a climate leader, said Marc Weissgerber of climate think tank E3G.
Weissgerber said the parties that will likely form the ruling coalition are “pro-Europe” and “pro-multilateralism.” Both of those things mean a commitment to U.N. climate talks and the Paris Agreement — which Trump pulled the U.S. out of — and a continuation of pursuing climate action.
“I think it’s a win-win situation for everyone," he said.
Since 2019, Germany has a climate law that legally requires the country to reach its climate goals within the agreed time period. And there's a host of initiatives, from expanding renewables, their storage and electrification that already have the foundation a new government could build on, said Julia Metz, a German climate policy expert and director of the think tank Agora Industry.
“It is crucial to keep up the pace, not only for emissions reduction, but also because this would eventually lead to lowering power prices in the midterm, and also to reduce dependencies in imports of fossil fuels,” Metz said. While the new government may also look increasingly to carbon capture technology, this should not come at the expense of reducing emissions to avoid carbon-lock in.
That matters because Germany is desperately trying to regain a competitive, economic edge, experts said.
“Clean tech sectors and green products can help make Germany competitive again,” said Kalcher.
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